week 11: beyond the line of sight

It’s the last week of having proper lessons, and aptly, the lesson covered frameworks used to access, predict, and anticipate future developments in industry trends. So the lesson kickstarted off with a few quotes. A quote which particularly resonated with me was the one by Winston Churchill, an inspiring leader with quite an arsenal of witty quips. He says this:

The empires of the future are the empires of the mind.

This quote brings to mind namely, the movie Inception and its ability to pinpoint and encapsulate what Churchill mused about. That essentially, our reality is directly manifests what we create and construct in our minds. That, our minds know no boundaries and simple ideas speak powerful implications for our future. This is the summation of Technology Assessments – sizing up the future, such that we can adequately understand and assess possible implications and technological developments.

The empires of our mind

Given the limited resources we have, a key feature of technology assessments involve strategic planning. Strategic planning should take into consideration our capabilities,  resources, skill sets, and competencies. From there, prioritisation determines the next moves. Using the rising – falling star analogy, one can choose to work from current realities, or perceive opportunities and start with a blank sheet (essentially looking to conquer higher summits). There was a brief overview of the methods used to assess foresight – “foresight methodologies”. Of which, was extrapolation. One mistake I feel humans often make is projecting the past into the present. Mentioned in one of the readings is to envision the future, and working backwards from there – Backcasting. Start changing what is needed in the present to get to the destination in the future.. which makes sense.

The reading on the Africa’s early warning system on food security is a good illustration of how foresight methodologies play a huge role in. The early warning system in Africa is ridden with gaps – there are few educated people who know how to collect information using proper methodologies, and few institutions realise the importance of coordinating with each other, to allow the system to reach its potential as a watchtower and think tank for issues pertaining to food security.

On the topic of science fiction and futurology, similarities between the two subjects were being drawn. I do believe, that science fiction (and the authors) is particularly useful on various levels. Firstly, within the realm of science, imagination takes flight – Jules Verne has (whether coincidentally or not) predicted the advent of many modern inventions. The truth is, many novels of the genre has oft influenced change leaders in thought and ideas. Though not specifically under the genre, classics such as 1984 has seen its influences in present day politics. So whether technology has influenced how sci – fi is written, or the other way round, the arts and sciences go hand in hand in charting the path of human development.

An article by Guy Kawasaki, titled “What I Learned From Steve Jobs” highlights the importance of having change leadership. In his words, “Big wins happen when you go beyond better sameness. The best daisy-wheel printer companies were introducing new fonts in more sizes. Apple introduced the next curve: laser printing. Think of ice harvesters, ice factories, and refrigerator companies. Ice 1.0, 2.0, and 3.0. Are you still harvesting ice during the winter from a frozen pond? “. Steve Jobs was someone who embraced  revolutionary change, and firmly believed that changing the world starts with changing a few minds. Therein comes the pessimism – time curve – these leaders ride at the forefront of the innovation (pessimism – time sine curve) wave and influence the change of the tides. Change leadership is key in determining the technological frameworks to be put in place – it is no doubt tricky even, to determine how the change leader should move forward, assuming one deviates from what consumer wants to create an innovation that is entirely revolutionary. Henceforth, technology assessments should create leeway for sudden, experimental and spontaneous innovations to take place.

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To round up the lesson, I quote from Winston Churchill:

A politician needs the ability to foretell what is going to happen tomorrow, next week, next month, and next year. And to have the ability afterwards to explain why it didn’t happen.

While awfully wry in his comments, I think Churchill hit the nail on the head – that we can utilise all we have now to predict, but the future is still uncertain. As was the doomsday prophecy by Harold Camping that didn’t materialise, (supposedly on 21st October at 6pm) forecasting is tricky. When should one know when to rely on it, and when to deviate from it? There is a list of checks and balances to go through as we tread carefully on (seemingly) the thin bed of ice of our choices. We should continue to exercise discernment, while remaining forward – looking and open towards a culture of risk – taking.

week 10: Looking Forward

You see things and you say, ‘Why?’ but I dream things that never were; and I say ‘Why not?

George Bernard Shaw

This week, the lesson revealed how the large canvas of our imagination is pivotal in directing the world’s development. The overarching factors framing the developments taking place include the end of Pax Americana, and the quest to preempt  the consequences that follow a population boom. With new problems and challenges looming over the horizon, we need to be prepared with adequate solutions to meet these problems.

Therein, a rising star mentality is key to ensuring innovation solutions to meet the future challenges. Albert Einstein highlighted the importance of imagination over knowledge, given the limitations of knowledge. (it is what we know in the present, in comparison to imagination which embraces the possibilities of existing knowledge and beyond). In reiterating the assumptions needed for a rising star to seize cloud opportunities, the rising star needs to be open minded, risk taking, and unafraid to think differently.

Prof quoted from Kahlil Gibran, that the space between man’s imagination and his attainment may only be transversed by his longing. Alongside adopting a innovation – mindset, a realistic means of bridging the fulfilling of one’s desires is through spotting market driven opportunities, and through a balanced combination of sales and marketing. Take, the case of Apple. It’s success is attributed to a balanced pushing of products (sales) and by creating desire – changing consumer’s perception of what they need (marketing)

Technological innovations, then, come into the equation when the above factors are set in place. Various up and coming technologies were mentioned in class. An innovation that amused me plenty was claytronics – otherwise termed “advanced plastercine” by a classmate Keithy. Claytronics, together with Kinectic technology, would change the way to which human relationships are formed. It expands the limits to which we can dream, or frame solutions.

Secondly, plastic electronics was mentioned to be up and coming. The plastic microchip is currently in its prototype stage. Imagine the possibilities! Cost of most products would be driven down – one article on The Content Wrangler reads that ink – jet printing out plastic microchips or circuit boards are a near future. The British company, Plastic Logic, recently revealed its e- textbook, much similar to the iPad, but groundbreaking in what is the anticipation of e-paper. It is thin, shatter-proof. Seems like the age of electronic newspapers (with bendable screens) are becoming a reality, especially with the construction of a plastic electronics factory in Russia, that is set to produce 300 million chips once it starts operating in late 2013.

Most intriguing of all technologies shown, was the human robot invented by Japanese scientists- touted to be the perfect substitution for our other halves. I for one, am seeing hints of cyborg dating in SIRI – imagine a duet with SIRI! (http://www.heraldsun.com.au/technology/duet-with-siri-musician-records-a-love-song-for-iphones-latest-feature/story-fn7celvh-1226173093642). Personally, I find it hard to swallow that people would be given the freedom to choose.. virtually anything they wish to marry. Imagine attending a wedding of a friend’s and Lisa, The Perfect Woman ©.One point raised in class about how advanced artificial intelligence can be – as already seen in Visa products, and the iPhone 4S. On a side note, (bear with me here) the commoditisation of women/or man, for the record – how would the substitution of robots in place of humans spell for social issues such as prostitution and the sex industry? Also, an observation I made on the Monday bus ride to school, was that whilst passengers were keeping to themselves, their attentions were diverted to their smartphones – watching tv, playing games, and all. I was not privy to all, however. Imagine though, what SIRI would do these passengers. They would be talking yes, but in essence to no one in particular.

Augmented reality is another technology we see adapted into our lives already. The recent exhibition on terracotta warriors at the Asian Civilisation Musuem works with an augmented reality iphone app, which allows the ‘warriors’ to come to live. Exhibit-goers can have a field trip at the musuem , taking photos with these warriors and alll. However, AR is limited to physical settings, for now (say, within museums). Imagine a day with AR contact lens, or even being surrouded by Augmented Reality itself.

Another exciting development is wireless electricity, as envisioned by Nicholas Tesla. Together with smart buildings, these innovations provide possibilities to rethink issues that surround resource allocation (of electricity, food, water), essentially re-hauling the cities we live in, the lifestyles we have.

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A few recurring themes emerged from what was discussed in class today –

1. Transhumanism – The dehumanisation of humans, or eugenics even, could potentially lead to widening of stratification, along say, income divides for one. Robotics and artificial intelligence provide means for the above to happen.  There was a brief discussion on how advent of robots within a predominantly capitalistic world  would displace those doing menial jobs and make other people obsolete – (a similar topic was discussed in my soci class, to which a classmate suggested genocide to kill off these people.. ) So while there are exciting technologies to deal with a probable population explosion, there are real consequences that are hard to weed out even with current innovations – increasing income inequality – and poverty is a huge question that remains hard to answer.  There were suggestions though, about expanding social security, giving shares to people in society (therefore having a stake in society). Or the citizens earning based on how much value is created. Social capitalism was another suggestion thrown out.

2. Most technologies, signal a return to basic human interaction. E paper, or the multi – touch technology, diversify ways for us to use our fingers and other body parts. I like that innovations and technologies are returning to the basic ways in which humans relate to our physical reality. There is something intrinsically humanistic about man interacting (be it physically, or socially) with ideas, with knowledge.

Week 9’s topic on energy and world change provided as usual, much food for thought. Admittedly, I didn’t manage to do the readings for this week so much of the discussion follows various news articles done after having been through lesson.

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A brief explanation on where sources of energy comes from – broadly categorised into energy sources obtained from ‘above’,  and ‘below the ground’. Most renewable sources come from ‘above the ground’, and vice versa.

With the age of industrialisation, the switch to coal was prevalent across most societies. (The end of slavery coincided with the age of industrialisation, and the use of coal) Now, there are developing and developed countries alike which gather a huge chunk of revenue from petroleum or oil industries. Nigeria obtains 90% of its revenue from petroleum alone. Yet the reliance on non – renewable energy sources already shaky, because of the rapid depletion of such sources. The argument that sustainable energy – solar power is the way to go, given that the sun provides more energy to the earth in one hour than human kind currently uses in an entire year. There is virtually a wide canvas of possibilities if humankind were to tap into solar power as the main source of energy.

There are efforts made by stakeholders to combat entrenched habits in the mass – scale utilisation of fossil fuels. The German government for one, takes a pro – environmental stance with policies. Cash incentives (rather than deterrences in the form of taxes) are given to citizens and corporations which uses solar power. It works out to a profit of 30 cents per kw/ hour, if one utilises solar power technology at one’s abode or workplace. That said, I wouldn’t mind considering moving to Germany myself, after weighing the benefits of surrendering my citizenship and living in a pro – green country with an emphasis on retaining  nature spots.. The  class concluded that there is a long way to go for Singapore in going ‘green’ as a way of life, because of various reasons.

Firstly, Singapore experiences full sunlight most of the time, and there is little done to harness the amount of solar power that could be generated. Compared to their European counterparts, the government does not advocate cycling as a means to get around a small city, and relegates cycling to leisure activities, confining it to green spots and designated cycling paths. Judging the recent furore over the inadequacy of trains to meet the needs of passengers, perhaps there is a need to advocate less cars for a ‘healthier lifestyle’ through cycling. I found that there are actually bicycle rental schemes, seeing it offered at Bukit Batok interchange, though the state of the bicycles seemed to tell much about how well the rental scheme was received. I guess the lack of reception by Singaporeans could be a contributing factor to why the government does not have plans to promote cycling as a means of transportation currently.

In conjunction with government efforts to introduce sustainable energy sources, afactor that plays a large part in utilising energy sources is the physical infrastructure in our environment – Buildings, roads, whats nots. The development of which could make or break the future of sustainable and renewable energy sources. I am interested to see the innovations in architecture, in which architects and engineers are the key people to provide solutions for infrastructure which harnesses such renewable energy sources. The New York Centre for Sustainable Energy is an example of the significance and relevance of Sustainable Architecture, its exterior made of old shipping containers.

Other sources of energy are currently being considered. The US advocates ethanol from the production of corn. Ironically, whilst ethanol provides for a high proportion of energy consumed in the US, the production of corn is fueled by coal and petroleum. Moreover, it is not equitable for the US to sink large sums of subsidies into growing corn when land is taken away from food in order to plant corn that is engineered towards providing maximum yield of ethanol. Obama’s energy policy is not looking at the long term horizon, with its reliance on fossil fuels.

The search for alternative fuels have led countries to Africa for its rich untapped resources. The europeans are looking to invest in solar farms in middle east and the Sahara desert. Similarly, China is cultivating bio fuels in countries such as Madagascar, Mozambique and Tanzania. At the risk of seeing the situation turn into a case for neo – colonialism, the buyer countries should ensure that purchases made  (land, agricultural deals) should equally benefit African nations, beyond merely job creation and injecting into the economy. The Africans should be ensured food security and that their livelihoods are not threatened, and they do not slip deeper into any form of poverty.

Singapore is already generating energy from waste, with 3 incineration plants (waste to energy) producing 3% of Singapore’s total energy consumption. However, the lauded move may be discounted given Singapore’s semiconductor and chemical industries are heavy users of petroleum and related products.

That said, there is also alot to tap into, expanding on the existing green technologies. Governments should think of the worst case scenario, to take preventive action in lieu of a dystopian energy outlook.. On the short term horizon, externalities should be internalised to change the economics.

I left class thinking about how awesome it would be if methanol made up the bulk of energy used by us. (mainly because i imagined how farting would be .. socially acceptable. perhaps).

Otherwise, the topic allowed for me to piece the puzzle of how energy and the raging crisis affects food security, hunger at large, (linked to the topic of agricultural innovations) and on the whole how it affects the (political, cultural, economic) exchanges taking place between developing and developing societies, to say the least. I’m satisfied.

week 7: muddy terrain

because it’s easiest to start off the post with a quote –

Some see things that are, and ask why. I dream of things that never were and ask why not.

Robert F Kennedy

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this week’s topic on biobusiness in the agriculture and the environmental and industrial biotechnology sector was no less intriguing compared to its predecessors.

First up, agriculture.

The proverbial debate about food security remains relevant, and muddy to wade through. Would sustainability of the food sources mean we should produce less, or engage in intensive agriculture using genetically modified seeds/ transgenic animals?

Singapore is unique, since its small land size spells our reliance on other countries for food sources. Interestingly, prof mentioned that we adopt a pauper’s mentality towards most things, if not food alone. extending the discussion, Singapore would choose to cut down, or save, in order to meet the minimum target.

To quote prof: “when we are able to grow the resources we need, we will finally be on the road to sustainability.” that we should bear in mind efficient resource allocation to prevent any excess resources from remaining.

[though, really? at the point of sounding irrelevant, do we really know what we need? do we know what the end goal is? ]

putting the questions aside and bearing in mind the stewardship of our resources in allowing sustainability, I think Singapore could look within itself for the answers to food security. To quote Kennedy, Why Not? Given how urbanisation is the general trend in the 50 years to come, it is a viable to consider moving agriculture to the cities – gardening in our rooftops, vertical farming using aeroponic/hydroponics technologies.

Poverty

Given that most of the primary industries in developing countries are in the agriculture industry, most people are mired in poverty, due to factors such as irregular weather patterns, and the shrinking farming area inherited by individual farmers. In Bangladesh, the average land held by farmers has shrunk from 0.6ha  to 0.2ha. On the other hand, corporations move into picture, with the large – scale tilling of the land, using gm crops. Corporations that do not take into account the individual stakeholders in the picture, will reap high yields from their (nutritional, large) crops, and push the prices of crops down, miring farmers deeper in debt. I will not discount the impact of the Green Revolution in empowering small – time farmers, though, in securing a way out of poverty. However, how much of empowerment is eroded by agri-industrial giants is contested. Furthermore, the elites (or ‘the antiscience’, as per the readings) play a factor in allowing farmers and ranchers access to such information. I recently went to visit TWC2’s Cuff Road Project at Little India – half of the migrant workers fed at Cuff Road are from Bangladesh, formerly farmers who mortgaged their lands off to come to Singapore in hope of securing a life of comfort for their families back home. Here in Singapore, they face themselves stranded and deeper in debt – having been cheated by their employers and the middlemen.

GM food

GM foods on one hand, is touted as a panacea to resolving hunger issues, yet is claimed to harm the environment. While we shouldn’t be discounting the benefits of science, we should put in place control measures. Promoting the environmental movement concurrently is a good complement to stemming any possible side effects from gm foods. At the risk of being a tradeoff to potentially higher yields of crops, legislation to protect soils, reduce loss of biodiversity, etc, the movement emphasises sustainable farming. Meanwhile, equipping the modern “farmists” with the latest knowledge in agriculture allow for farmers who can manage the environment in smart ways – and thinking up possibilities for bio technology innovations. “Farmists” are likely to be less susceptible to fall into the cycle of poverty, and therefore able to secure their own food security.

Hunger

When poverty occurs, it is sure to come hand in hand with hunger. In response to hunger, Singapore may not qualify as one of the countries experiencing hunger. Perhaps urban hunger – though the reasons that account for urban hunger is not so much the inability to sustain a healthy agricultural sector, but rather the ability to secure and allocate food exports.  Town planning (food distribution sources like supermarkets, restaurants, food aid agencies should be considered)

Singapore, as a highly developed country, could do its part to provide solutions to the hunger issue. In investing into the agricultural industries of developing countries, it contributes to securing Singapore’s food sources. This goes the same for US, which claims to desire for a level playing field for hunger, yet its high subsidies for corn making it easier for corn to be the choice of crop for biofuel, causing corporations to reign in power and farmers to be stuck in the poverty cycle. There needs to be more cooperation between the private and public sectors, small and large stakeholders. Also, small holdings could combine to form cooperatives, in increasing their power through collectivity.

Also, the example of China buying plots of land in Africa was cited. The motives and decisions made by China causes socio-political problems to arise. The Africans are subjected to work at the company and are not empowered to steward their land. Africa thus reaps the short term economic benefits, but loses out on the long term benefits.

environmental and industrial biotechnology in developing countries

this week’s lessons were largely skewed towards the discussion on agriculture, and little on bio technologies in the environmental and industrial sector. Briefly, there is much potential to be harnessed for the mentioned technologies in the environmental and industrial sector. The problem with niche markets in developing countries is that it requires large investments in physical infrastructure (though with biotech physical infrastructure is not a requirement). The adaptation of technology (pessimism time – curve much?) is slow to take up by the influential people (who are able to diffuse ideas across society, easily) 

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6 weeks into the module, one thing that strikes me most is how, with the onset of technology and development, humans need to maintain a fine balancing act in handling their resources wisely.

on a another note, my posts are getting increasingly longer and convoluted over time. |:  it takes me so long to finish one post 😦

week 6: That’s old, folks.

I’ll start off with a short confession to make – that I got lost with all the bio – jargon being tossed around (also, any word with ‘bio’ attached to it scares me off). That said, I’ll attempt to gather up the strands of thought that came during the week – pardon me, if the thoughts still seem pretty disparate.

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Ageing Population

Mrs. Grey sat on a hard chair in the corner looking—but at what? Apparently at nothing. She did not change the focus of her eyes when visitors came in. Her eyes had ceased to focus themselves; it may be that they had lost the power. They were aged eyes, blue, unspectacled. They could see, but without looking. She had never used her eyes on anything minute and difficult; merely upon faces, and dishes and fields. And now at the age of ninety–two they saw nothing but a zigzag of pain wriggling across the door, pain that twisted her legs as it wriggled; jerked her body to and fro like a marionette. Her body was wrapped round the pain as a damp sheet is folded over a wire. The wire was spasmodically jerked by a cruel invisible hand. She flung out a foot, a hand. Then it stopped. She sat still for a moment.

Old Mrs Grey by Virginia Woolf

I thought of  Old Mrs Grey herself when encountering the issue of ageing population in the readings. Ageing population, is a trend that countries need to recognise. This means – a higher elderly support ratio, increasingly higher rates of non-commutable illnesses, amongst other economic and societal implications. There is a kind of burden to bear by the younger generation, if countries do not acknowledge and draw out these possible implications.

Here is where technology, in the healthcare industry, would hinge on the ageing population trend, and improve existing solutions. Firstly, with ICT, the healthcare sector is able to improve its physical infrastructure. For the elderly, patient – care taker interaction may take place with telemedicine – the patient is not isolated from receiving proper treatment and care, while medical specialists can attend to many more elderly patients. The possibilities are endless, with patient monitoring technology, and the development of new diagnostic and screening technology.

Along with the ageing population trend is a rise in non commutable diseases – obesity, heart disease – all which cannot be treated and solved in a short span of time. The complexities that come with having a combination of non-commutable diseases (which the elderly are prone to having) are many . The panacea that bio business can offer – is introducing and developing alternative  medicine. To add on, there is thus an onus and need for doctors to innovate – to position the healthcare industry to prepare for the onset of the ageing population. Also, to continue enabling the industry to be relevant at all times.

The US should not be isolated from the picture when the healthcare industry is mentioned. A high level of entrenchment exists in the us – high costs of medical services at the basic level, due to bureaucracy. It is ironic that the industry is mainly profit – driven – that in lieu of the growing number of disruptions innovations, industrial powers disallow such technology to enable the industry to remain relevant, innovative, and provide cheap, effective and efficient healthcare to the public. To overcome entrenchment, the government and private corporations have to pump into more money to enable new innovations to be eased into the industry. The reasoning, being it is more profitable to cast a long term vision, for companies to embrace and keep up with change, than remain obsolete and irrelevant to the needs of consumers (those who demand health care). For how can proprietry drug be classified as a generic drug more easily? A solution suggested by “Will Disruptive Innovations Change Healthcare?” was that industry powers and government cooperate to remove barriers that impede innovations from entering. For one, the implementation of disease management – individualised attention for patients – is an example of how the US may overturn the high cost prices needed for medical treatment. This surplus accumulated can be channeled into removing barriers, and getting the cogs running – towards embracing disruptive innovation.

Going in a roundabout, an ageing population, is reflective of the how humans are closer to attaining the elixir of eternal life. A presentation by one of our classmates revealed how new innovations push the boundaries of our lifespan. It incited a debate in class about whether it is good if one could be immortal. While I don’t desire to live forever, I think that thought has to be put into safeguarding the psychological well – being of the aged individual. Old Mrs Grey is a reminder that with the promises of bio technology, innovations and immortality, ultimately our humanity is what remains important and should be protected. It is the key towards living a desirable life, and key to what will motivate every individual stakeholder – patient, nurse, researcher, child, parent, towards a ageing population not being a burden or financial exploitation of society.

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Other Issues Raised

There are also other health care trends, for one, the issue of epidemics  – the need to focus on preventive care, which require attention from the health care sector. Again, the onus is on industry players to be good stewards of given resources, to play their strategy wisely.

On the topic of biobusiness, healthcare and agriculture are the industries which make up the bulk of the business. However, for the agricultural sector, most people are in the ‘valley’ region – farmers. In lieu of the need for increased food productivity, there is a need for stakeholders to reach for summit opportunities.

Interestingly, there are industries which would classify under ‘bio -businesses’. Cosmetics, and prostitution – not to mention the porn industry, are huge bio-businesses that create ‘value’ in the economy. Hmm..

Lastly, biobusiness is increasing being emphasised on in meeting the challenge of poverty. The solution of  bio business towards improving water sanitation – 1 in 200 women lose their lives as a consequence of pregnancy in hk, singapore and other more developed countries.

Fish Farming as an Innovation in Aquaculture

Fish Farming

Executive Summary

What is it?

The role of aquaculture is an alternative to obtaining fresh seafood, in addition to obtaining supplies from ocean and freshwater sources. Fish farming in its modern form came about when farming methods were successfully developed.

Importance

–   Revolutionary change – fish farming

–   Project vital to the global food chain – Seafood is a key component of the diet of others

–   The need for a sustainable and healthy supply of foodfish.

–   Globally, a failure of farming to keep up with food demand would soon outstrip the cost of treating disease. Biotech to safeguard the future of global food security.

–   An alternative to ocean and freshwater capture fisheries.

Current Stage of Development

–   Through genetic selection, with cutting edge technology – superior strains for both species are produced.

–   In Singapore, the growth performance of fish is tested through the use of molecular markers.

–   Platform technologies such as genetic maps are used to study the reproductive developments of fish species such as Seabass.

–   To achieve a quantum leap in food-related R&D for two kinds of foodfish in Singapore – Asian Seabass and Mozambique Tilapia

Implications (in a nutshell)

–   Environmental

• Fish farms starve larger predators, including tuna, marine mammals
• Diseases spread easily ( from farmed to wild caught fish)
• Chemical used at fish farms can pollute the water

–   Ethical

–   Economic

Solution to issue of food security? / Future Direction for Fish Farming

Conclusion

Appendix

Reference

http://www.businessweekly.co.uk/biomedtech-/12545-cambridge-role-in-asian-fish-genome-project

http://wildshores.blogspot.com/2009/08/boosting-fish-farming-in-singapore-what.html

http://www.worldwildlife.org/what/globalmarkets/aquaculture/index.html

Week 5: Being Human

“The most exciting breakthrough of the 21st century will not occur because of technology but because of an expanding concept of what it means to be human.” – John Naisbitt

This quote provided much food for thought, and was explored in particular relation to ICT. There are several aspects the class came up with, to explain what it means to ‘be human’. Firstly, there is the machine vs man debate. Would technology advance to the point where the definition between man and machine becomes blurred? The transfiguration of man towards machine.

Or, contrary to the empowerment of the individual (as discussed in week 4) and technology as the spring-off of  mankind’s quest for world peace (contestable, I know), would it be our quest for technology that ends up driving progress in society?

I guess, the question that would define this discussion would be -what makes us distinctively human?

I like this quote because it speaks of technology as an organic evolution, that forms alongside our continual search on our humanity. Technology as an extension of human thought.

Let’s bring ICT into the picture.

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1. web 1.0 – 3.0 

the evolution of the web brought about increasing interactivity: the semantic web vs wildcard option. No longer making vaguely intelligent guesses at what users intend to search for, the machine, or the web, is becoming increasing precise in knowing what we are looking for.

again, the idea that machines are becomingly increasingly sophisticated and smart – there is also the social element injected into it, which all the more makes it hard to distinguish man from machine.

2. Project Natal

Ignoring existing limitations (high production costs), Milo the man-bot could be coexisting with us in the near future. What impacts it would create, with its ability to interpret, create, and translate basic human emotions to real humans. My first thought was that this technology could be harnessed to meet the needs of the ageing population – imagine Milo as a companion to the elderly, or acting as a caregiver in dispensing medical advice and monitoring the health of individuals. Also, what would such technology do for people with mental disorders. It is powerful, if someone with schizophrenia, or autism, would be well with the advent of such technology.

3. cloud computing: everybody wants a slice of the cloud

An exciting innovation that serves as an alternative to ICT. There were numerous concerns raised with regards to the cloud, in spite of its empirically proven economic benefits. Of which, security concerns were one of the lingering issues. I’m not exactly sure what the concern is regarding, but one example that came to mind was the US government being slow to jump onto the cloud computing bandwagon. Unlike private entities (as with Amazon), the state was still spending most of its tech budget on trusted technologies. A potential worry was of security concerns – that confidential information would be found, given that cloud computing allowed for large chunks of information to be ‘on a cloud’, at little or no cost. Sharing information (between organisations, individuals) is a mindset shift that could potentially reflect a positive direction towards the cooperation of nations. I think this technology could be leveraged to promote the interaction and exchange of knowledge, disregarding security lapses for now. A major plus would be the creation of innovation – solutions towards existing needs. As governments adopt the technology and undertake policies to prevent the abuse of cloud computing, I believe it sets the direction for corporations to adopt the technology, rapidly. This should bypass the pessimism – time cycle, of “general status quo intertia”, which prof introduced in week 4 of class. The ways humans interact are shifting dramatically – with virtually no end to the extent of communication one can get involved in (in terms of geographical locations, time, and number of individuals). Which leads us to..

4.knowledge management

Cloud computing would catalyse the influx of new knowledge. With the mass of knowledge swarming around us, it makes perfect sense to appoint individuals, or Chief Knowledge Officers in corporations, to manage knowledge resources wisely. Dynamics are shifting, with consumers being empowered with knowledge, and skills.  Each choice the consumer or individual makes has huge repercussions now. The key is: Knowledge, the retainment of it, the management of it, is crucial when manpower (in corporations) is .. fickle and there is a high turnover.

5. Capturing the value of ict/ knowledge revolution

We have yet to harness the full potential of the ict/ knowledge revolution, or even come up with an adequate and proper framework to harness technologies and knowledge to work towards a common good. Do we slow down, then? (As prof sees it, many economies are ‘stuck in their old ways’) Or do we keep our focus and go in-depth? It is tricky, for policy makers to cast policies when the outlook and forecast could shift at the turn of the wind.

Whether we are or are not becoming increasingly sophisticated machines, I particularly liked the quote by kofi annan – that speak of essentials, which drives us to search our humanity. technology is merely a reflection of what is festering within the collective of individuals (in response to albert einstein’s words, that the kind of  use and technology developed reflects our ‘inhumanity’ . Perhaps what we’re all driving towards is this, which could be eloquently sized up by Antoine de Saint Exupery:

 Transport of the mails, transport of the human voice, transport of flickering pictures — in this century, as in others, our highest accomplishments still have the single aim of bringing men together.

With ICT, more voices are being heard, thus increasing the complexity of society. It is all the more important to come to a common consensus, to be on the same page, to size up, attempt to notate the nuances of these complex links and relations irregardless.

Week 4: Rethinking Our Paths

Week 4’s lesson started with a quote by George Bernard Shaw:  “The reasonable man adapts himself to the world, the unreasonable one persists to adapt the world to himself. Therefore all progress depends on the unreasonable man.”

Throughout history, a common pattern is repeated across societies – Status quo remains, hierachy is maintained. There is none to disrupt the balancing act. The one who sets the direction for society has an vested interest to in moving society in a certain direction, and has enough power to see it through. On the other hand, in spite of the status quo, is the possibility that could be. That everyone of us is a fiction writer – the power of an individual is oft neglected. Take Steve Jobs for example. He took up the challenge to keep reaching for the stars, dreaming when it  is hard to envision. Such visions open up new directions for society to move ahead into. The tension between societal forces and the desires of the individual is maintained, and it may suffice to say that this tension is the sum of the development of technology and world change.

The modern counterpart to Pax Romana was brought up. We are currently in Pax Americana, the period of reigning peace after world war 2. What intellectuals did not anticipate was the rise of China and India to bite America on its back. There are signs that Pax Americana could well be on its way to the dark ages – likened to the descent into a falling star using the rising-falling star model. These signs – the financial crisis, global warming, etc. were suggested in class – the reluctance of the West to step up towards global leadership. I would venture to guess that the end of Pax Americana was due to the lack of foresight and commitment to follow through their global framework. For example, the American invasion of Iraq was not spoken out against, and foiled possibilities to extend a hand to the Muslim world. This was in spite of protests of prominent politicians, such as Obama. On the other hand, the rise and fall of nations are just the way of life, isn’t it? Prof suggested that the world should recognise the opportunity to  cooperate. It would be appropriate for the nation who wields the most power to take the lead for every nation to cooperate and work towards a common goal.

To take a step further, the sum of technological development which results from the tension between societal forces and the individual can be categorised into evolutionary change and revolutionary change.

Evolutionary change refers to incremental changes over time. (nasa space technology),while revolutionary change refers to disruptive change.

Of which of the type of change would be most suitable? This would depend on the context which the change occurs. Looking at the development of transportation just before the industrial age – there have been evolutionary changes made to horse drawn carriages (better breed of horses, lighter carriages perhaps). But the steam engines truly changed the face of transportation – which quickly earned public approval – revolutionary change and the extent of change would determine what kind of changes would be most suitable.

Effecting Appropriate Policies

Also, one thing that stood out for me, was that the type of policies implemented would  determine the kind of needs innovation will be directed at. In today’s terms, meeting the scarcity for energy sources requires someone with a vision to effect (sustainable) revolutionary change to the ways we obtain energy. The effecting of policies, is personally a potentially scary thought. It spells making calculated and informed decisions in the face of uncertainty.

Yet, to encourage innovation and the individuals ‘desires, (though certainty is much valued in societies), cultural policies and culture, generally, are crucial in creating innovators.

At this point,  given the complexity of linkages in society, I would propose that connectivity – to be plugged into the world – is a key component to answer Yali’s question.

Technology and Leadership

The second part of the lesson brought up the idea of Leaders vs Managers. Leaders are visionary. They create the framework, and gett people excited about stuff (stuff). On the other hand, managers puts things into practice and allocates resources efficiently. Managers identify and meet performance objectives. Personally, I would think of myself more of a leader, less of a manager. Sadly, its the lack of discipline and focus that hinders my ability to develop as a manager..

The analogy of the eagle/ostrich/dodo approach in responding to change brings us back to the introduction (of this post), where the ostrich keeps status quo going by likening it to an individuals who chooses to follow and do as one is told.

In putting two and two together, the empowering of individuals within a hierarchy is a way develop their abilities as leaders/managers. It allows for a transformation for the individual to go from a do all dodo to the swaggering eagle. In a knowledge driven economy, it is crucial for companies to recognise worth of individuals, since after all, human resources are a key factor in a company’s performance. Governments should support the move in this direction through incentives and reward such as recognition.

To cite a microscopic take on what was discussed above, g11 is a reflection of how individuals make choices – whether we choose to take ownership determines the kind of ‘innovation’ that is created during class. Discovering what motivates us is key to empowering us and sparking our interests in class.

 

This lesson was thought provoking – 7 thumbs up from me.

 

taking stock of innovation

Just a quick note amidst the rush of information.

The past few lessons have pointed out technology and innovation as directional/or catalysts towards human development. Various theories learnt identified crucial elements and periods in developing innovations. However, not much has been said about moral boundaries. On studying the role of technology in world change a little more keenly – moral boundaries are necessary to address when discussing the ‘value’ of innovation. how much of these existing technologies tethered on moral boundaries?,  would innovation be sparked from a desire to stretch moral boundaries (I believe not though), is there a framework the individual can use to consider whether technologies are inherently beneficial (indirect impacts, or detriments that could be psychological, cultural, intangible in nature)?

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lesson 3:

Fresh from week 2, week 3’s lesson introduced an emerging trend of innovation – that of sustainable development. Some initial questions I had on my mind – is sustainable development a global trend? (as prof says, sustainable development in terms of thinking and application, a movement that starts ground up) And if  not, then what should be the trend? what are the emerging trends? (To answer my question, we’ll be discussing about the drivers of world change in week 4)

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3rd Lesson – Technology and Industrial Development

In a nutshell, the age of industrialisation was driven by access to fossil fuels – which are limited in amount. Hypothetically, going down the route of industrialisation is a linear and potentially destructive model. The example of the Great Pacific Swirl, or the painfully ironic Great Garbage Swirl was cited, which describes the damage towards the environment. This leads us to the present day where we are challenged to rethink our allocation of the earth’s resources. Are we not prioritising our needs, being good stewards of our resources, and actually shortchanging the children of the future with our (excessive) consumption? ..would we be shooting ourselves in the foot?

Onto the readings: To add on to reading 2, “Industrialisation as an Engine for Growth in Developing Countries”, industrialisation is seen as advantageous towards developing countries, having the ‘advantage of backwardness’. There is almost a positive correlation between a developing economy (positive growth seen in its gdp) and industrialisation. On the other hand, is industrialisation the only key or tool to alleviating the economic status of a developing economy?

I thought of Timor Leste as an example. Certainly, Timor Leste has seen its rural landscape increasingly modernised, developing physical infrastructure (roads, dams, telephone lines) to adapt to the growing rate of its economy. Aside from cashing upon its rich resources (oil and natural gas), the young nation is actually focused on developing its agricultural industries – fishing, and developing ecotourism. Alongside, improving livelihoods in the rural sector is on its key agenda. This requires sustainable improvements in a number of key strategic areas, notably agricultural productivity, promoting crop diversification, developing agricultural processing and the marketing of these products.

On the IPP for sustainable industrial development framework, I stand by the belief that education is imperative and is a primary strategy that must be considered. Also, there should be some form of accountability to be included/considered within the economic and legal framework. This would relate to the raging issue of sustainable energy – (Eliza’s presentation) Is palm oil the way to go? Seeing how Malaysia and Indonesia is dedicating most of its green space to palm oil plantations, would it be dangerous, given biofuels may not be truly sustainable. Personally, I think Malaysia is putting most of its eggs in one basket by devoting its resources to palm oil and the biofuels industry; it’s a move that spells risk. One of the best ways to allow the public in a bigger say in the issue is to raise awareness and educate them. [digressing here for a moment: The Malaysian government does a good job in highlighting the benefits of palm oil in its bid to ‘inform’ the public, which only presents a skewed view of the whole issue..]

 

Innovation Management: what it takes to create value

On the Shahi Landscape Model for Technology Assessment, I wonder, what if the issue of value introduces imitation goods (duds) into the economy? What would be its implications, and how does the framework take into account these imitation goods? I would see it as one of the deterrences for an innovation to attain a ‘summit’ opportunity, or for an innovation to kickstart its descent into the valley of the shadow of death.. On the other hand, imitation goods are an industry of its own. I would see imitation goods as having ‘summit’ value itself, since it retains its competitive advantage with low cost prices on top of being cutting edge in its technology. This adds on to what prof said, to focus on summit opportunities, by putting people, technologies and resources together to capture the value proposition.

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By calling us to do our readings, prof encourages us to take ownership of the class, in engaging in richer student-professor interactions. How we respond to prof’s call here on would shape the way lessons are conducted – (unashamedly), I am definitely one for the learning – 7/10

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Sources

http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=38264&Cr=timor-leste&Cr1